For anyone new to volume betting, or for anyone needing a refresher, here is a simple guide to my strategy and success.
Sports betting requires the ability to understand implied odds, value, and probability. You then use these skills to identify bets that will yield a profit based on your research.
The problem is, no matter how much research you do, and no matter how sharp your analysis is, things can still go wrong that are out of your control.
Weather, poor officiating, injuries, coaching decisions, bad hops, and the performance of other players can all negatively impact YOUR bet. We call this variance.
The problem with variance, is that is you are only placing 3-5 bets, it can turn a winning day into a losing day quickly.
However, variance is random and will have less impact over a large sample size.
So if we know the mathematical formula to reduce variance, shouldn’t we? Yes!
Variance is the enemy of betting results, and a large sample size will tame variance.
So if you increase your betting volume, you will dramatically reduce variance over time.
This is not to say you should simply bet more, the idea is to diversify risk. So instead of betting $100 on 5 bets (for example), you should bet that same $100 on 20 bets. Same risk, higher probability of success over time.
Obvious caveat: You must be adept at identifying wagers with the proper expected value. Otherwise you are just betting more for the sake of it.
A very successful bettor is winning around 60% of their bets. And that is the benchmark we are looking to acheive.
That said, odds play a huge factor.
This is why an understanding of implied odds is vital. Here is an example:
-110 = 52.38% implied probability
-130 = 56.52% implied probability
-150 = 60.00% implied probability
This is essentially the % you would need to hit to break even.
Does this matter for a single bet? Not a great deal.
But long term? (Especially volume betting) It matters a tremendously!
If a $100 bettor places 100 bets…
60-40 record @ -110 = $1,454 profit
60-40 record @ -130 = $615 profit
60-40 record @ -150 = $0 profit
Same bets. Massive difference.
So we want to keep our targeted odds with an average below -150 in order to make money at a 60% clip. Obviously we want to keep our avg bet well below -150, but this provides you with a visual for how impactful odds can be.
When I say “Volume Builds Character,” there is a reason.
We are going to place a TON of bets. And if we are winning 60% of these bets, that means we re losing 40%. That is a ton of losses for anyone not used to volume.
If is VERY important to keep a longview and understand that this is a season long process and that single days DO NOT MATTER.
We are gonna have huge days at times. But we are going to have bad days too. That will happen when betting in volume because sometimes the pendulum swings heavily to one side.
But the reality is that we are looking to build profit over time. And we will. But it requires an understanding of the process.
Reduce variance whenever possible. Stick to single bets or high probability parlays that fit within our implied win %.
Do not force plays and always look for a reason NOT to take a bet. It’s better to miss out on a winner than suffer a loss.
Place every bet with implied odds in mind and you will start to make better decisions.
All of a sudden, you will start building waves of profit until you have enough built up over the season to increase your risk. That’s right, rather than using our original bankroll, we will fund 1/2 our risk with earned profit.
This is when a good season can turn into a great season.
So stay patient. Do not let emotions (good or bad) from a single day impact your mindset. This is a proven strategy that works with the proper discipline and experience.
Let’s have some fun and make some money 🤙
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Awesome. Thanks